You can want 92...

In speaking with a colleague from another school last week, he was regaling me with the fact that his Board set an enrollment goal that would have required 92 new students this year, even though the highest they had ever enrolled in one year was 80 new students. And that was in a good economy. 92 is a 15% increase from the best record ever. Well...you can want 92 but you aren't getting 92. Now, as you read this, I am sure your blood is coming to a slow simmer with ill thoughts towards this Headmaster and Board. But I would challenge you to turn inward to yourself or at least to our profession. Whom do we allow to set enrollment expectations?

Whether or not you like Southwest Airlines (hello Shannon in Row 6), there is no question as to their success. And how are they successful? They brilliantly manage passenger expectations. We promise you no assigned seats. You get none. We show you no movies. You watch none. We offer you a rewards programme but you'll never get enough points to fly to Paris. I know that. Most everyone who buys a ticket on Southwest has a very clear expectation of what they will and will not get--and Southwest consistently delivers on that expectation, and is therefore one of the most financially successful airlines.

So, how astute are we at educating our Boards and Headmasters about total enrollment versus new student enrollment expectations? We are our school's "chief enrollment officer" and need to take the lead on the differentiation. If not us, then who? The formula shouldn't and can't read: Enrollment Goal - Returning Students = New Student Enrollment Goal. It must instead read,

New Student Enrollment Goal + Returning Students = Enrollment Goal.

But we aren't going to be credible in making this pitch if we don't use historical and data-driven predictions and recommendations, and mitigate those recommendations with current environmental factors such as competition, economy, and demographics. Do you know your five year average attrition and new enrollment rates by tuition? By grade? By gender? By boarding versus day? By domestic versus international? It takes a lot of time and can be built in Excel but the result is a fascinating and fantastic tool to begin the prediction of enrollment for next year if not the next five years. Play with it. Let your Headmaster, admin team and/or Board see how today’s first grade enrollment unveils sixth grade in five years.

Who is setting up the expectations for new student enrollment at your school? At the end of the flight...err day, it is still you who has to manage those expectations. You might want to fasten your seatbelt, stow your tray table, and put your seat in the upright position, and pay attention. If you want to be a Southwest Airlines-caliber admissions professional, then you need to first manage and then subsequently deliver on expectations.